Polly's final forecast: Obama 53.0% vs. McCain 47.0%

After her success in predicting the 2004 Election, Polly once again proved the value of combining forecasts.

From the beginning (August 30, 2007), Polly never strayed from the Democratic candidate.

Following the principle of combining forecasts Armstrong (2001), Polly provided near-perfect predictions for the 2004 election (Cuzán, Armstrong & Jones 2005).

As Larrick & Soll (2006) demonstrated, most people do not understand that combining leads to substantially more accurate forecasts. As a result, combining is not used nearly as much as it should be for forecasting in business and government.

Pollyvote is part of the Political Forecasting Special Interest Group at forecastingprinciples.com, a resource for scholars and practitioners interested in forecasting elections and other political events. It is supported by the International Institute of Forecasters.