Who will win the election if voters decide based on which candidate they expect to do better in handling the issues?
In a recent study, Graefe and Armstrong addressed this question. They found that, historically, voters chose the candidate they expected to do the best job in dealing with the issues facing the country.
The graph below shows how the PollyIssues percentage forecast developed over time as the candidates reveal information about their positions on issues.
Since its first forecast on March 2, the approach consistently predicted Obama as the winner. From the beginning of July, with an increasing number of issues, the forecast ranged in the narrow band from 46.0% to 46.8%. The final forecast of 46.5% did not change from October 12.*
(Zoom in at the bottom of the graph for exact readings)
The approach is based on the assumption that voters select the candidate they expect to perform best in handling the issues. Thus, it is assumed that
- For the voter, it is not primarily important how the candidates intend to solve the problems or what policies they promise to pursue.
- Rather, the voters simply want the problems to be solved.
Graefe and Armstrong tested their approach for the nine U.S. Presidential Elections from 1972 to 2004, analyzing data from 315 historical polls. For each election, they correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote, along with providing an idea of the margin of victory. For the last three elections from 2000 to 2008, the method outperformed well-established election forecasting methods.
* Analysis based on the final version of the paper.
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Last Updated ( Saturday, 25 April 2009 10:12 )
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