This page covers research papers related to PollyVote as well as election forecasting in general.

The PollyVote

• Cuzán, A. G., Armstrong, J. S. & Jones, R. (2005). Combining Methods to Forecast the 2004 Presidential Election. The PollyVote, Presented at the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, January 6, 2005.
• Cuzán, A. G., Armstrong, J. S. & Jones, R. (2005). How We Computed the Pollyvote, Foresight, Vol. 1, pp. 51-52.
• Jones, R. J., Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2008). Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U.S. Presidential Elections, SSRN Working Paper.

Polly's components

Poll damping

• Campbell J. E. (1996), "Polls and Votes: The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns," American Politics Quarterly, 24 (4), pp.408-433.
• Erikson R. S. and Wlezien C. (2008): “Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(2), 190-215.

Iowa Electronic Markets

• Berg, J., Nelson, F. & Rietz, T. A. (2008). Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run, International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 285-300.
• Erikson R. S. and Wlezien C. (2008): “Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(2), 190-215.

Quantitative models

• Abramowitz, A. I. (2008). Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model, Emory University.
• Campbell, J. (2008). The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Value Considerations in an Open-Seat Election, PS: Political Science and Politics (forthcoming).
  
• Cuzán, A. G. & Bundrick, C. M. (2008). Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election: A Challenge for the Fiscal Model.
• Erikson, R. S. & Wlezien, C. (2008). Leading Economic Indicators, the Polls and the Presidential Vote, PS: Political Science and Politics (forthcoming).
• Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J. S. (2008). Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies.
• Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. (2008). Implications of the ‘Bread and Peace’ Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election, Public Choice (forthcoming).
• Klarner, C. (2008). Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level, PS: Political Science and Politics (forthcoming).
• Lewis-Beck, M. S. & Tien, C. (2008). The Job of President and the Jobs Model Forecast: Obama for ’08?, PS: Political Science and Politics (forthcoming).
• Lichtman, A. J. (2008). The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008, International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 301-309.
• Norpoth, Helmut (2008). On the Razor's Edge. The forecast of the primary model, PS: Political Science and Politics (forthcoming).

Other papers on forecasting the 2008 Election

Directional forecasts

• Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., Jones, R. J. & Wright, M. (2008). Predicting elections from politicians’ faces. 

Forecasts of the electoral vote

• McNown, R. (2008). Economic and Demographic Determinants of the Electoral Vote for President.