Polly the parrot uses the high-profile application of forecasting U.S. Presidential Election outcomes to demonstrate advances in forecasting methodology. Her main focus is on the principle of combining. In addition, she is working on forecasting methods that can aid political decision making.

Combining forecasts

Polly averagesforecasts from four different component methods: trial-heat polls,prediction markets, quantitative models and expert judgments. Theresulting forecast is called the PollyVote.

This approach has led tohighly accurate forecasts for the past five U.S. presidential elections. Currently, Polly is working on the PollyVote 2012 for forecasting the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election.

You think you already are an expert on combining forecast? Test your knowledge on this well-researched principle here.

Forecasts as decision aids

Within the PollyVote project, several new forecasting models have been developed that can aid political decision makers in questions such as: Should a candidate run for office? Who should be nominated to run for office? What issues should be emphasized in a campaign?