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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Wednesday, 30 September 2009 09:49 |
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Bad news for Sarah Palin: PollyBio predicts that she would not be able to defeat President Obama in a potential 2012 showdown. Based on her bio-demographic data, Sarah Palin does not seem to be a good choice for the Republican Party. While Obama achieves a score of 20, Palin’s score is 11 points. Given the model’s historical performance, this translates to a predicted two-party voteshare of 59.5% for Obama, with a 95% prediction interval of +/- 6.2%. Even if Palin would be perceived as more competent, intelligent, and attractive than Obama – three cues for which no data is yet available – the model gives her little chance of defeating the incumbent president. This suggests that the Republican Party further extends its search. The PollyBio model can help with that. Evaluations of other potential Republican candidates will be posted here in due course.
Codings for Obama and Palin | Biographical cue | Candidate | Obama | Palin | | 1 | Adopted children | 0 | 0 | | 2 | Presidential ancestry | 0 | 0 | | 3 | Children | 1 | 1 | | 4 | Not divorced | 1 | 1 | | 5 | Father (political office) | 0 | 0 | | 6 | First born | 1 | 0 | | 7 | Last born | X | 0 | | 8 | Single child | 1 | 0 | | 9 | Loss of children | 0 | 0 | | 10 | Loss of sibling | 0 | 0 | | 11 | Loss of spouse | 0 | 0 | | 12 | Married | 1 | 1 | | 13 | Orphan | 1 | 0 | | 14 | College | 1 | 1 | | 15 | College graduate | 1 | 1 | | 16 | Fraternity | 0 | 0 | | 17 | Prestigious college | 1 | 0 | | 18 | Law degree (J.D.) | 1 | 0 | | 19 | Masters' degree | 0 | 0 | | 20 | PhD | 0 | 0 | | 21 | Phi beta kappa | 0 | 0 | | 22 | Professor | 1 | 0 | | 23 | U.S. Naval / Military Academy | 0 | 0 | | 24 | City major | 0 | 1 | | 25 | No election defeat | 0 | 0 | | 26 | Governor | 0 | 1 | | 27 | Judge | 0 | 0 | | 28 | U.S. President | 1 | 0 | | 29 | Public Attorney | 0 | 0 | | 30 | State representative | 0 | 0 | | 31 | State senator | 1 | 0 | | 32 | U.S. Representative | 0 | 0 | | 33 | U.S. Senator | 1 | 0 | | 34 | Vice President | 0 | 0 | | 35 | Actor | 0 | 0 | | 36 | Athlete | 1 | 1 | | 37 | Book author | 1 | 1 | | 38 | Disease survivor | 0 | 0 | | 39 | Military experience | 0 | 0 | | 40 | Military honors | 0 | 0 | | 41 | Facial competence | N/A | N/A | | 42 | Intelligence | N/A | N/A | | 43 | Physical attractiveness | N/A | N/A | | 44 | Name popularity (first name) | 0 | 1 | | 45 | Name popularity (last name) | 0 | 1 | | 46 | Height | 1 | 0 | | 47 | Weight | 1 | 0 | | 48 | Home state | 1 | 0 | | 49 | Religion | 1 | 0 | | | Overall score | 20 | 11 | | | Predicted election winner | Obama | | We used two independent raters to code the candidates. If these coders disagreed,a third coder made the final decision. More information about the coding can befound in the Appendix to the full research paper. If you identify incorrect coding please contact
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