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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Tuesday, 17 November 2009 12:48 |
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Here are the new scores after the model update for Barack Obama and Sarah Palin. While Obama achieves a score of 25, Palin’s score is 16. This translates to a predicted two-party vote share of 57.7% for Obama, with a 95% prediction interval of +/- 6.7%. If one removes predictor variables that might favor males in inter-gender races (such as the candidates’ height and weight), Obama would still be predicted to receive 56.3% of the vote. Even if Palin would be perceived as more competent, intelligent, and attractive than Obama – three cues for which no data are yet available – the model gives her little chance of defeating the incumbent president.
| Biographical cue | Obama | Palin | | Adopted children | 0 | 0 | | Presidential ancestry | 0 | 0 | | Children | 1 | 1 | | Not divorced | 1 | 1 | | Father (political office) | 0 | 0 | | First born | 1 | 0 | | Last born | 0 | 0 | | Single child | 1 | 0 | | Loss of children | 0 | 0 | | Loss of sibling | 0 | 0 | | Loss of spouse | 0 | 0 | | Married | 1 | 1 | | Orphan | 1 | 0 | | College | 1 | 1 | | College graduate | 1 | 1 | | Fraternity | 0 | 0 | | Prestigious college | 1 | 0 | | Law degree (J.D.) | 1 | 0 | | Masters' degree | 0 | 0 | | PhD | 0 | 0 | | Phi beta kappa | 0 | 0 | | Professor | 1 | 0 | | U.S. Naval / Military Academy | 0 | 0 | | City mayor | 0 | 1 | | No election defeat | 0 | 0 | | Governor | 0 | 1 | | Judge | 0 | 0 | | U.S. President | 1 | 0 | | U.S. (or State) Attorney General | 0 | 0 | | State representative | 0 | 0 | | State senator | 1 | 0 | | U.S. Representative | 0 | 0 | | U.S. Senator | 1 | 0 | | Vice President of the U.S. | 0 | 0 | | U.S. Secretary | 0 | 0 | | Solicitor General | 0 | 0 | | Lieutenant Governor | 0 | 0 | | Director of CIA or FBI | 0 | 0 | | Celebrity | 0 | 0 | | Age | 1 | 1 | | Athlete | 1 | 1 | | Hair | 1 | 1 | | Clean-shaved | 1 | 1 | | Book author | 1 | 1 | | Disease survivor | 0 | 0 | | Physical or sensory disability | 0 | 0 | | Chronic disease / illness in childhood | 0 | 0 | | Glasses | 0 | 1 | | Military experience | 0 | 0 | | Military honors | 0 | 0 | | Nobel prize winner | 1 | 0 | | Sex | 1 | 0 | | Facial competence | N/A | N/A | | Intelligence | N/A | N/A | | Physical attractiveness | N/A | N/A | | Voice | N/A | N/A | | Name popularity (first name) | 0 | 1 | | Name popularity (last name) | 0 | 1 | | Height | 1 | 0 | | Weight | 1 | 0 | | Home state | 1 | 0 | | Race | 0 | 1 | | Religion | 1 | 0 | | Overall score | 25 | 16 | | Predicted share of the popular two-party vote | 57.7% | 42.3% | We used two independent raters to code the candidates. If the coding disagreed, a third coder made the final decision. More information about the coding can be found in the Appendix to the full research paper. If you identify incorrect coding please contact us. |