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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Sunday, 03 January 2010 07:49 |
According to a USA TODAY / Gallup poll, conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, former Republican Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee seemed to be a promising candidate for the Republican party in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. Among all respondents, 40% said they would "seriously consider supporting" Huckabee for president. Among Republicans, 71% would support him. No other potential Republican contender achieved an equally high voter support. However, the PollyBio model, which is based on biographical information about candidates, gives Huckabee little chance to defeat Obama. While Obama would achieve a score of 23, Huckabee's score is 20. This translates to a predicted two-party share of the popular vote of 52.5% for Obama, or 47.5 for Huckabee. According to the PollyBio model, Huckabee would have to be rated more favorable than Obama for each of the four variables for which no data are yet available (i.e. facial competence, intelligence, attractiveness, and voice). | Biographical cue | Huckabee | Obama | | Adopted children | 0 | 0 | | Ancestry | 0 | 0 | | Children | 1 | 1 | | No divorce | 1 | 1 | | Father (political office) | 0 | 0 | | First born | 0 | 1 | | Single child | 0 | 1 | | Loss of children | 0 | 0 | | Loss of sibling | 0 | 0 | | Loss of spouse | 0 | 0 | | Married | 1 | 1 | | Orphan | 0 | 1 | | College | 1 | 1 | | College graduate | 1 | 1 | | Fraternity | 0 | 0 | | Prestigious college | 0 | 1 | | Law degree (J.D.) | 0 | 1 | | Masters' degree | 0 | 0 | | PhD | 0 | 0 | | Phi beta kappa | 0 | 0 | | Professor | 0 | 1 | | U.S. Naval / Military Academy | 0 | 0 | | City mayor | 0 | 0 | | No election defeat | 0 | 0 | | Governor | 1 | 0 | | Judge | 0 | 0 | | President | 0 | 1 | | (State) Attorney General | 0 | 0 | | State representative | 0 | 0 | | State senator | 0 | 1 | | U.S. Representative | 0 | 0 | | U.S. Senator | 0 | 1 | | Vice President | 0 | 0 | | Secretary | 0 | 0 | | Solicitor General | 0 | 0 | | Lieutenant Governor | 1 | 0 | | Celebrity | 1 | 0 | | Age | 1 | 1 | | Athlete | 1 | 1 | | Not bald | 1 | 1 | | Clean-shaved | 1 | 1 | | Book author | 1 | 1 | | Disease survivor | 1 | 0 | | Physical or sensory disability | 0 | 0 | | Chronic disease / illness in childhood | 0 | 0 | | Glasses | 0 | 0 | | Military experience | 0 | 0 | | Military honors | 0 | 0 | | Gender | 1 | 1 | | Nobel Peace Prize | 0 | 1 | | Facial competence | N/A | N/A | | Intelligence | N/A | N/A | | Physical attractiveness | N/A | N/A | | Voice | N/A | N/A | | Name popularity (first name) | 1 | 0 | | Name popularity (last name) | 1 | 0 | | Height | 0 | 1 | | Weight | 1 | 0 | | Home state | 0 | 1 | | Race | 1 | 0 | | Religion | 1 | 0 | | Overall score | 20 | 23 | | Predicted share of the popular two-part vote | 47.5 | 52.5 | More information about the coding can be found in the Appendix to the full research paper. If you identify incorrect coding please contact
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