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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Tuesday, 05 January 2010 16:34 |
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As of January 2010, Mitt Romney is favored by the intrade.com prediction market to be the Republican nominee for the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. The market sees his chances to win the nomination at about 25%, followed by Tim Pawlenty (20%), Sarah Palin (18%), and John Thune (13%). According to the biographical model, the chances for Romney - for whom running in 2012 is "always a possibility" - to defeat Obama are not great. While Obama would achieve a score of 23, Romney's score is 21. This translates to a predicted two-party share of the popular vote of 51.7% for Obama, or 48.3% for Romney. Although Romney scored higher than Palin and Huckabee, he would need to achieve higher ratings than Obama on the four variables for which no data are yet available (i.e., facial competence, intelligence, attractiveness, and voice) in order to be predicted as the winner.
| Biographical cue | Romney | Obama | | Adopted children | 0 | 0 | | Ancestry | 0 | 0 | | Children | 1 | 1 | | No divorce | 1 | 1 | | Father (political office) | 1 | 0 | | First born | 0 | 1 | | Single child | 0 | 1 | | Loss of children | 0 | 0 | | Loss of sibling | 0 | 0 | | Loss of spouse | 0 | 0 | | Married | 1 | 1 | | Orphan | 0 | 1 | | College | 1 | 1 | | College graduate | 1 | 1 | | Fraternity | 0 | 0 | | Prestigious college | 1 | 1 | | Law degree (J.D.) | 1 | 1 | | Masters' degree | 1 | 0 | | PhD | 1 | 0 | | Phi beta kappa | 1 | 0 | | Professor | 1 | 1 | | U.S. Naval / Military Academy | 1 | 0 | | City mayor | 0 | 0 | | No election defeat | 0 | 0 | | Governor | 1 | 0 | | Judge | 0 | 0 | | President | 0 | 1 | | (State) Attorney General | 0 | 0 | | State representative | 0 | 0 | | State senator | 0 | 1 | | U.S. Representative | 0 | 0 | | U.S. Senator | 0 | 1 | | Vice President | 0 | 0 | | Secretary | 0 | 0 | | Solicitor General | 0 | 0 | | Lieutenant Governor | 0 | 0 | | Celebrity | 0 | 0 | | Age | 0 | 1 | | Athlete | 0 | 1 | | Not bald | 1 | 1 | | Clean-shaved | 1 | 1 | | Book author | 1 | 1 | | Disease survivor | 0 | 0 | | Physical or sensory disability | 0 | 0 | | Chronic disease / illness in childhood | 0 | 0 | | Glasses | 0 | 0 | | Military experience | 0 | 0 | | Military honors | 0 | 0 | | Gender | 1 | 1 | | Nobel Peace Prize | 0 | 1 | | Facial competence | N/A | N/A | | Intelligence | N/A | N/A | | Physical attractiveness | N/A | N/A | | Voice | N/A | N/A | | Name popularity (first name) | 0 | 0 | | Name popularity (last name) | 1 | 0 | | Height | 0 | 0 | | Weight | 1 | 0 | | Home state | 0 | 1 | | Race | 1 | 0 | | Religion | 0 | 1 | | Overall index score | 21 | 23 | | Predicted share of the popular two-part vote | 48.3 | 51.7 | More information about the coding can be found in the Appendix to the full research paper. If you identify incorrect coding please contact us. |