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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Friday, 08 January 2010 06:22 |
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As of January 2010, Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota, ranks second at the intrade.com prediction market to be the Republican nominee for the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. The market sees his chances to win the nomination at about 18%. According to the preliminary forecast of the biographical model, Pawlenty would not be a good choice for the Republicans. While Obama would achieve a score of 22, Pawlenty's score is 18. This translates to a predicted two-party share of the popular vote of 53.6% for Obama, or 46.4% for Pawlenty.
| Candidate | Pawlenty | Obama | | Adopted children | 0 | 0 | | Ancestry | 0 | 0 | | Children | 1 | 1 | | No divorce | 1 | 1 | | Father (political office) | 0 | 0 | | First born | 0 | 1 | | Single child | 0 | 1 | | Loss of children | 0 | 0 | | Loss of sibling | 0 | 0 | | Loss of spouse | 0 | 0 | | Married | 1 | 1 | | Orphan | 1 | 1 | | College | 1 | 1 | | College graduate | 1 | 1 | | Fraternity | 0 | 0 | | Prestigious college | 0 | 1 | | Law degree (J.D.) | 1 | 1 | | Masters' degree | 0 | 0 | | PhD | 0 | 0 | | Phi beta kappa | 0 | 0 | | Professor | 0 | 1 | | U.S. Naval / Military Academy | 0 | 0 | | City mayor | 0 | 0 | | No election defeat | 1 | 0 | | Governor | 1 | 0 | | Judge | 0 | 0 | | President | 0 | 1 | | (State) Attorney General | 0 | 0 | | State representative | 1 | 0 | | State senator | 0 | 1 | | U.S. Representative | 0 | 0 | | U.S. Senator | 0 | 1 | | Vice President | 0 | 0 | | Secretary | 0 | 0 | | Solicitor General | 0 | 0 | | Lieutenant Governor | 0 | 0 | | Celebrity | 0 | 0 | | Age | 1 | 1 | | Athlete | 1 | 1 | | Not bald | 1 | 1 | | Clean-shaved | 1 | 1 | | Book author | 0 | 1 | | Disease survivor | 0 | 0 | | Physical or sensory disability | 0 | 0 | | Chronic disease / illness in childhood | 0 | 0 | | Glasses | 0 | 0 | | Military experience | 0 | 0 | | Military honors | 0 | 0 | | Gender | 1 | 1 | | Nobel Peace Prize | 0 | 1 | | Facial competence | N/A | N/A | | Intelligence | N/A | N/A | | Physical attractiveness | N/A | N/A | | Voice | N/A | N/A | | Name popularity (first name) | 1 | 0 | | Name popularity (last name) | 0 | 0 | | Height | 1 | 0 | | Weight | N/A | N/A | | Home state | 0 | 1 | | Race | 1 | 0 | | Religion | 0 | 0 | | Overall score | 18 | 22 | | Predicted share of the popular two-part vote | 46.4 | 53.6 | More information about the coding can be found in the Appendix to the full research paper. If you identify incorrect coding please contact us. |