PollyVote Project

Polly the parrot uses the high-profile application of election forecasting to demonstrate advances in forecasting methodology.

Her focus is on the principle of combining by averaging forecasts from different component methods. This approach has lead to highly accurate forecasts for the past five U.S. presidential elections (Graefe et al. 2011).

Polly's caretakers are Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzan, Andreas Graefe and Randall Jones.

You have comments, suggestions, or corrections? Contact us at info@pollyvote.com.

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The Keys to the White House changed
Written by Andreas Graefe   
Thursday, 02 June 2011 08:48
Allan Lichtman informed Polly that due to the killing of Osama bin Laden, Key 11 (Foreign / Military Success) has turned in favor of the party in power. Thus, the model's new forecast is 55.0% for Obama.
 

PollyVote 2012

 
Today's forecast of the
popular two-party vote

Click here for more information about this forecast.

Fit to be president?

Compare your biography to Obama's and see your chances of winning the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election - or find out whether your favorite politician would have a chance.

The test is based on the PollyBio model, which correctly predicted 27 of the last 29 U.S. Presidential Election winners. Click here to access the test.