Ray Fair model update predicts a virtual tie in the popular vote

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Ray Fair model update predicts a virtual tie in the popular vote

Written by Andreas Graefe

Thursday, 03 November 2011 14:11

Ray Fair updated his vote-share equation with the latest economic data. The revised forecast of the model fell from 53.4% for Obama to 50.0%.

According to Fair's model, the election outcome strongly depends on the state of the economy. For a moderately growing economy, which is the current assumption in the model, the election is predicted to be close. If the economy will do considerably better, Obama is forecasted to win. In contrast, if the economy is going into another recession, Obama is predicted to lose.

Incorporating this information, the combined PollyVote forecast now predicts Obama to gain 50.4% of the popular vote.

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