PollyVote Project

Polly the parrot uses the high-profile application of election forecasting to demonstrate advances in forecasting methodology.

Her focus is on the principle of combining by averaging forecasts from different component methods. This approach has lead to highly accurate forecasts for the past five U.S. presidential elections (Graefe et al. 2011).

Polly's caretakers are Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzan, Andreas Graefe and Randall Jones.

You have comments, suggestions, or corrections? Contact us at info@pollyvote.com.

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Correction: The forecast of the Norpoth & Gschwend model for the German Bundestagswahl
Written by Andreas Graefe   
Thursday, 24 September 2009 07:19
Helmut Norpoth informed Polly about the updated forecast, issued on August 24, 2009. According to the latest data, the model predicts 52.9 percent of the vote for the combination of CDU/CSU and FDP.
 

PollyVote 2012

 
Today's forecast of the
popular two-party vote

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PollyPrimaries 2012

 
Today's forecast of the
2012 Republican
presidential nominee
(Ranks of top 3 candidates)


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about this forecast.

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Compare your biography to Obama's and see your chances of winning the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election - or find out whether your favorite politician would have a chance.

The test is based on the PollyBio model, which correctly predicted 27 of the last 29 U.S. Presidential Election winners. Click here to access the test.