The state of election forecasting has progressed to the point where it is possible to get highly accurate forecasts for major elections. However, one area that has received little attention is how to use forecasting as an aid to those involved with political campaigns. Although we know from a number of econometric models that the incumbent’s chances to win decrease if he is unpopular, the economy is doing poorly, or the federal budget deficit increased during his administration, it is difficult for political parties and candidates to take action based on such forecasts.
In an effort to address this deficit, Polly has recently been interested in developing models that can aid political decision-makers. For example, should a candidate run for office? Which candidate should a party nominate? What issues should be stressed in the campaign?
For this, Polly has used the index method, an approach that is particularly valuable if many variables are important and if one has good domain knowledge about the directional impact of each variable on the outcome. Thus far, Polly has developed two index models:
- The PollyBio model predicts the election outcome based on candidates’ biographies. Thus, it can help candidates to decide whether they should run for office and parties to decide about whom they should nominate.
- The PollyIssues model predicts the election outcome based on how voters perceive the candidates to handle the issues. Thus, it can help candidates and parties to decide about which issues they should emphasize in their campaign.
In addition, Polly used a variant of the take-the-best heuristic to develop the PollyBigIssue model. This model predicts the election outcome based on information about how voters expect the candidates to handle the single most important issue facing the country. The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign.
References- Armstrong, J. S. & A. Graefe (2011). Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates, Journal of Business Research, doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2010.08.005.
- Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take-the-best heuristic, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, doi: 10.1002/bdm.710.
- Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J. S. (2010). Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues, Presented at the 28th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Nice, 2008 and the Bucharst Dialogues on Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Science Perspective, Romania, 2010.
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