For predicting the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election, Polly the parrot uses the same procedure that was so successsful in 2004 and 2008. That is, averaging forecasts within and across all available component methods.

The current PollyVote forecast draws upon four component methods: polls, index models, econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets.

The table below shows today's forecast of each component as well as the resulting PollyVote forecast.
 

The PollyGraph below shows how the PollyVote forecast has changed over time. Since its first release on January 1st 2011, the PollyVote consistently predicted Obama to win the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election.