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The combined models’ forecast is calculated as the simple average of established quantitative models.
Most of these models have been developed by economists and political scientists, who provide their forecasts around Labor Day of the respective Election Year. However, some models release their first forecast as early as two years before Election Day. Polly continuously keeps an eye on updated and new model forecasts and incorporates these into her prediction.
The table below provides an overview of models for forecasting the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election that Polly has found to date, along with the models’ latest forecasts and Polly’s resulting combined model forecast.
Econometric model forecasts for 2012
(ordered by date of most recent change) |
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The time-series chart below shows how Polly’s combined model forecast has evolved over time. Since its first release on January 1st 2011, Polly’s combined model forecast has consistently predicted Obama to win the 2012 election. 2012 combined econometric model forecast over time
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