The final forecasts of the Primary Model are in, conditional on who will win the Republican nomination. The Primary model uses the performance of the Republican candidates in the New Hampshire Primaries as a major predictor of the popular vote.

The good news for Romney is that, since he won the NH primaries, the model predicts him to do best against Obama. The bad news is that this won't be enough to take over the White House in November.

The model's forecast of the popular vote-share in a potential showdown between Obama and Romney is that Obama would gain 53.2% of the popular two-party vote.