|
The combined index models’ forecast is calculated as the simple average of forecast models that are built on the index method. The table below provides an overview of index models for forecasting the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election that Polly has found to date, along with the models’ latest forecasts and Polly’s resulting combined index model forecast.
Index model forecasts for 2012
(ordered by date of most recent change) |
|
The time-series chart below shows how Polly’s combined index model forecast has evolved over time. Since its first release on January 1st 2011, Polly’s combined model forecast has consistently predicted Obama to win the 2012 election. 2012 combined index model forecast over time
|
|
|
