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Andreas Graefe and Scott Armstrong developed the big issue model for forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections. It provides fast advice on which issues candidates should focus on in their campaign by using information about how voters perceive the candidates’ ability to handle the single most important issue facing the country. It predicted the winner of the past ten elections with an accuracy of 97% (based on an examination of the forecasts on each of the last 100 days prior to each of the last ten U.S. Presidential elections).
The graph below show the model's forecast for the two-party popular vote share obtained by incumbent president Obama in the 2012 election. The forecast is based on two sources of data (available here):
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The issue currently seen as most important by voters
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How voters perceive the candidates (parties) to handle this issue.
The forecast will be updated whenever new information from polls becomes available.
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2012 PollyBigIssue forecast over time |
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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Thursday, 16 February 2012 11:07 |
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The answer to this question is provided by the big-issue model. This model predicts the election outcome based on information about which candidate voters favor when it comes to dealing with the most important issue facing the country. The research paper in which this model is presented has now been published in the January 2012 issue of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.
Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take-the-best heuristic
Graefe, Andreas: Armstrong, J. Scott, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(1), 41-48.
Abstract. We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two-party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross-validation to calculate a total of 1000 out-of-sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety-seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign.
Full text available here.
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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Sunday, 07 August 2011 04:50 |
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A CBS News / New York Times Poll, conducted between August 2-3, provided new information on who voters prefer when it comes to dealing with the economy, which voters still regard as the most important problem facing the country. In this poll, voters were asked who they trust more to make the right decisions about the nation's economy. The result: 48% supported Obama, only 33% stated that they favor the Republicans in Congress. This information provides input to the PollyIssues and PollyBigIssue forecast models. - The forecast of the PollyIssues model, which predicts the election outcome based on how voters expect the candidates to handle all issues, remained unchanged, predicting that Obama will achieve 55.8% of the popular vote. This is because Obama already owned the "economy" issue.
- The forecast of the PollyBigIssue model, which predicts the election outcome based on how voters expect the candidates to handle the most important problem (i.e., the economy), changed in favor of Obama. The latest forecast of this model now predicts that Obama will gain 55.1% of the popular vote.
By comparison, the combined PollyVote forecast remained quite stable within the range of 51.1% to 51.5% for Obama since July 20. The latest forecast is that Obama will achieve 55.1% of the popular two-party vote.
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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Saturday, 19 February 2011 08:16 |
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The PollyBigIssue model, which uses information on the big issue to predict U.S. presidential election outcomes, has been updated with new information from polls. According to the latest forecast of the model, Obama would receive 53.5% of the popular two-party vote-share. Thus, since December 2009, the model continuously predicts Obama to win the 2012 election.
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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Sunday, 25 July 2010 15:56 |
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A new Quinnipiac University Poll, conducted between July 13-19, provides information on the question who would do a better job in dealing with the economy, which voters currently see as the most important problem facing the country. For the first time this year, more respondents favored the Republicans (42%) than President Obama (41%). Nonetheless, the PollyBigIssue model, which uses information on the big issue, still predicts Obama to win the 2012 election. According to the latest forecast of the model, Obama would receive 51.7% of the two-party vote-share. For more information, click on PollyBigIssue in the menu on the left.
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Written by Andreas Graefe
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Thursday, 22 July 2010 05:25 |
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The paper "Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take-the-best heuristic" has now been published by the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. We also added a new link in the left menu of this website (PollyBigIssue), where you can follow the latest predictions of this model for the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election.
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